Uncertainty Principles: Forget the Assumptions, Get the Facts

Uncertainty is something we all deal with in both our personal and professional lives and is frequently mis-characterized as risk. However, lack of knowledge is not technically a risk. Since we identified a key piece of information that is currently lacking from our critical knowledge base, it is a certainty, not a risk. Uncertainty should be treated as such instead of as a future event. Fortunately, acquisition of specific knowledge always reduces or eliminates uncertainty so managing lack of knowledge can be straight-forward.

The first step in managing uncertainty is admitting we can not see (or plan) beyond the first point of uncertainty in a project. Assuming we can, on the other hand, leads to massive risk. Relying on unproven assumptions is a recipe for massive, whole project re-planning, and the resulting (sometimes massive) re-work required to get the project back on track. And, even then, that "track" realistically only runs as far as the next point of uncertainty where, if assumptions prove wrong, we start all over again. Admitting we can not see beyond the first point of uncertainty in an effort, however, leads to reduced risk across multiple dimensions.

The to key to successfully managing uncertainty lies in planning only to the short time/effort increment required to obtain the next critical piece of information. Then, make adjustments (adapt) only after the new knowledge is acquired in planning for the next point of uncertainty. In other words, incrementally plan the effort based on acquiring key pieces of information at the point they are actually needed  (just-in-time), then adapt and plan the effort to the next point of uncertainty.

Posted by: William W. (Woody) Williams

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